SemiAnalysis

SemiAnalysis

OpenAI Stargate Joint Venture Demystified | Microsoft Sore Loser, Does Softbank Have The Capital?, Texas GigaCampus, Winners & Losers

Money Rules Everything Around Me, The Real Numbers Behind Stargate, Lancium, Abilene Texas, Crusoe, Oracle, Cost Breakdown, Arm Is Fake News

Dylan Patel
,
Reyk Knuhtsen
,
Christopher Seifel
, and
Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros
Jan 23, 2025
∙ Paid
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The Open AI Stargate Joint Venture announcement had many folks heads turning, despite us calling out the capital requirements for OpenAI's immediate plans months ago. The headline $500 billion is such an earth-shattering number that it also caused deserved skepticism from folks like Elon Musk stating that Softbank has well under $10 billion of funding secured. Sam Altman clapped back by saying it was already under construction, and to come visit it.

Cluster Measuring Contest

It’s fun to see the elite are going through their measuring contests with clusters but also they are both right to some extent. Softbank doesn't have anywhere close to the money required for the cluster. At the same time, the cluster is already under construction in Texas, see the low res GIF for free subscribers.

SemiAnalysis Datacenter Model

The reality is that only the first phase is certain, which is a portion of the committed $100 billion, but the top line number is being counted in an interesting way to say the least. We already discussed the first phases of this Abilene, Texas datacenter site publicly in our report on Multi-Datacenter Training report 4 months ago. We also have had it in both the Accelerator Industry Model and Datacenter Industry Model for quite a bit longer.

Below we will go over what's actually happening with Stargate, what's up with Microsoft and the crisis there, the structure and cost, and how real the cluster actually is.

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