Archive - SemiAnalysis

The Future of Meta Superintelligence: A 1 Year Progress Update

A top tier RL environment startup spawns out of thin air, the most aggressive compute ramp we've ever seen, 2000km+ scale-across, and some advice for…

Jul 9 • Max Kan, Julien Martin-Prin, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, and Dylan Patel

Anthropic 3Q26 Profit Over $1B: The Anthropic IPO Financials Sneak Peak

Anthropic’s Opportunity is Theirs to Lose

Jul 8 • Joey Brookhart, Crystal Huang, and Dylan Patel

Nvidia GPU Debt Backstop Unleashes the AI Project Trinity: Capital, Offtake and Datacenters

Over 7T AI debt by 2029, There can be no Neoclouds without the Trinity. Nvidia's Backstop Economics Explained. AI Debt Needs Quantified. Nvidia's…

Jul 6 • Daniel Nishball, Cheang Kang Wen, Zane Fong, Reyk Knuhtsen, Sebastian Orejas, Jordan Nanos, Terence Ong, and Dylan Patel

Meta Compute: Everyone Wants To Be A Neocloud

Zuck Takes Plan B? SpaceX 2.0, Bedrock 2.0, MSL Isn't Giving Up, Scaling RecSys by 10x... ClusterMAX ranking coming soon?

Jul 2 • Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Max Kan, Joey Brookhart, Crystal Huang, and Dylan Patel

EMIB-T Roadmap, Custom HBM, HBM4 Packaging Challenges, Microfluidic Cooling, Photonic Interconnects, and More

ECTC 2026 Roundup, Intel, TSMC, SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, Marvell, Lightmatter, Microsoft

Jul 2 • Afzal Ahmad, DC, Gerald Wong, and Dylan Patel

June 2026

TokenBudgeting: Our Conversations with Enterprises on Token Spend

Was Widespread TokenMaxxing Ever Really Here?

Jun 30 • Crystal Huang, Joey Brookhart, and Dylan Patel

US Grid Constraints: Towards 40GW+ of Behind-The-Meter Datacenter by 2028?

Why the Grid Can't Keep Up, and Why that Drives Behind-The-Meter 50%+ of DCs/Year By 2028

Jun 25 • Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Sebastian Orejas, Ellie Holbrook, and Dylan Patel

China’s CXMT Is Set to Challenge DRAM Incumbents

CXMT IPO, SKHynix, Micron, Samsung Competition, Process Node Deficit, China HBM, Wafer Adds, Memory LTAs

Jun 23 • Ray Wang, Myron Xie, Dylan Patel, Junsung Kim, Sravan Kundojjala, and Louis Lu

Stop Saying Half of 2026 US Datacenter Capacity Is Canceled

Don't Believe The Vibecoded Estimates, Go Through Every Individual Filing Instead

Jun 18 • Reyk Knuhtsen, Maya Barkin, Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Ellie Holbrook, Nicolas Bontigui, and Dylan Patel

RL Systems Mind the Gap: Matching Trainer and Generator Throughput

RL Training Infrastructure, GRPO, PipelineRL, Async RL, Policy Staleness, RL Sandbox Infra, CPU Requirements, TCO Analysis, Thinking Machines Tinker

Jun 16 • Kimbo Chen, Cheang Kang Wen, and Dylan Patel

Is SMIC N+3’s Metal Pitch Smaller than Intel 18A’s?

SMIC N+3 Node Deep Dive vs TSMC N6, TechInsights Private Equity Sale, SemiAnalysis Teardown Engineering & Evaluation Lab, HiSilicon Kirin 9030, Process…

Jun 14 • STEEL Team, Afzal Ahmad, Andrew Wagner, Gerald Wong, Wayne Ma, Dylan Patel, Daniel Sanchez, Adith Shankar, Allison Elliott, and Sarah Lawrence

Intel Should Raise Capital

Intel's woes are behind them. The heavy spending is ahead of them. Why an equity issuance in a hot equity market could make Intel so much better sooner.

Jun 11 • Doug, Sravan Kundojjala, and Dylan Patel

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